Insiders Predicts Turnout Down 42%

Note: Within an hour of this post, the elections committee broke the model! Good job, EC! (more t-tests, next time, I promise)

I did a really simple logarithmic fit to the data the elections committee has been releasing.

I’m going to go ahead and predict turnout this year will be 3781. Only 58% of last years ~6500.

ballots v. time

Note: I’d do some confidence intervals, but seriously, I just finished a STAT 306 assignment, and I’m tired of t-tests.

What’s different this year from last? This editor notes one big difference is the lack of a student-wide email, highly visible poll-booths, and highly visible campaigns. Post your thoughts in the comments thread.


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  1. What have you? Why is turnout down this year?

    Posted by Alex Lougheed | January 28, 2010, 2:28 pm
  2. Apparently, within an hour of me posting this, the EC met my predicted target. I guess I kind of ignored that votes come in clusters around noon, and the last datum I had was at 9:30am. Hilarity. Total model fail.

    GJ on the EC on releasing the data though!


    Posted by Alex Lougheed | January 28, 2010, 2:48 pm
  3. This is adorable, so freakin’ adorable. p value FAIL.

    Posted by Mac Attack | January 28, 2010, 3:31 pm
  4. So, what is quorum? Has it/will it be reached?

    Posted by Rory Green | January 28, 2010, 5:04 pm
  5. There was a massive spike in voting in the last hours of last year’s voting period.

    Posted by Mitch | January 28, 2010, 8:05 pm
  6. 5191.

    Posted by Mitch | January 29, 2010, 7:54 am
  7. Also, saved votes will be submitted at 4pm. Expect another spike.


    Posted by Ricardo | January 29, 2010, 1:26 pm
  8. True fact. I need to read more 306.

    Posted by Alex Lougheed | January 29, 2010, 2:28 pm
  9. Proof that any model is only as good as the assumptions on which it is built.

    Or as us CS-types are fond of saying: “Garbage in, Garbage out”…

    Posted by Nicholas FitzGerald | January 29, 2010, 3:59 pm
  10. haha good try though

    Posted by Alison | January 29, 2010, 4:06 pm
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