Note: Within an hour of this post, the elections committee broke the model! Good job, EC! (more t-tests, next time, I promise)
I did a really simple logarithmic fit to the data the elections committee has been releasing.
I’m going to go ahead and predict turnout this year will be 3781. Only 58% of last years ~6500.
Note: I’d do some confidence intervals, but seriously, I just finished a STAT 306 assignment, and I’m tired of t-tests.
What’s different this year from last? This editor notes one big difference is the lack of a student-wide email, highly visible poll-booths, and highly visible campaigns. Post your thoughts in the comments thread.